How long have you been in the business?
25 years since founding BLS, but prior experience – four years working on NYC’s economic development initiatives under the Koch Administration and seven years working on public/private partnerships with DKM Properties – were both the inspiration and preparation for what we do at BLS.
What got you into the business?
An attraction to the inherently inter-disciplinary nature and the essential priority of economic development as a key ingredient in the success of virtually all public policy concerns and objectives.
Who inspires you?
My team every day. Also, leaders in public service, business and NGOs stay focused on the inter-connectedness of their respective missions.
How is the volatile tariff situation affecting corporate real estate decisions?
Uncertainty is the core concern. Shaking up the status quo may have been warranted to long-entrenched dynamics and reset expectations relative to prior attempts to negotiate more favorable trade terms, but the simple reality is that long-term predictability is essential to induce long-term investments. Decisions to establish or relocate manufacturing capacity take years to plan and execute – 3-4 years for most large production operations, and 4-6 for those requiring extended regulatory approval (e.g., FDA) – this transcending any demonstrably temporary tariff, or event presidential administrations. That said, there is a growing list of other more durable reasons to increase investment in US production capacity, including narrowing labor cost arbitrage (due to both increasing cost in alternative markets and increase automation), enhanced quality control and nimbler and more sustainable supply chains and, yes, also a longer-tern trend toward more protective trade policies that transcend administrations.
Can developers and construction companies rely on timely delivery of the materials they need for buildings/infrastructure, etc.? What can they do?
Supply chain constraints, challenges of inventory planning and pricing volatility went crazy during the pandemic, began to settle, but then confronted tariffs. Our perspective is focused on manufacturing and data center projects for which the availability of critical heavy equipment, including turbines and other energy-related components, are consequential in planning new projects, especially those with time-to-market urgency. Those with the balance sheet, liquidity and volume to command priority are distinguishing themselves.
With hybrid work mostly the norm, how are state and local economic development organizations trying to attract investment and help companies reassessing their real estate needs?
This is a more concrete challenge for local governments whose downtowns need a dense and vibrant population of workers and residents to thrive. Residential conversions of office space are essential but difficult and costly to implement at scale without substantial public sector financial and regulatory support. However, affordability and quality of life (including amenities and security) also are the essential ingredients for cities to prosper given the less office-centered workforce going forward. We can expect the migration back toward 3-4 or more days at the office (perhaps downtown or satellite) to continue, but that there will have been some degree of long-term shift in the balance of WFH and RTW relative to the pre-COVID norm. That said, it is important to keep in mind that the shift in employee office occupancy may only be a couple of percentage points, which is profound in terms of total local consumer demand, transit ridership and many other metrics, and its impacts will be felt, yet it’s still just a few points, so in some ways not always noticeable in all contexts. Increased affordable downtown is the key balancer.
For business location decisionmakers, a more diffusedworkforce model could make the choice of specific location of a new employmentcenter somewhat less consequential in accessing a less location-centeredworkforce, but all of our clients are smartly not over-playing the sluggish anduneven RTW transition and remain highly focused on the local workforceaccess as they continue to press for increased presence at the office – heretoo a balance of accommodating and enjoying the benefits of flexibility andsome cost savings, but focusing on where most employees, and mosthigh-value employees, come together to collaborate, mentor, socialize andexcel.
What keeps you up at night?
A level of national and global instability accelerated both by breakdown of trust in institutions and in the provenance of “facts.”
Jay is the Executive Managing Director at Biggins Lacy Shapiro & Co., one of the most highly regarded site selection and incentives advisory firms in North America. BLS & Co. helps manage the complexities associated with finding optimal locations and securing incentives to support new ventures.